Armed Force Bowl

Everyone stand and salute! The second game of the day honors the men in uniform at the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl.

The Armed Forces Bowl features the Army Black Knights and the Houston Cougars, with opening lines of Army -5 and over/under 67.5. These lines have moved a whole bunch. The spread dropped to -3.5 before bouncing back to Army -6.5. The total has been falling like a stone — after opening at 67.5 it currently stands at 57.

Relative Performance

What should this spread be? Let’s start with seeing how these teams performed against their respective schedules.

It looks like, on average Army scored almost 30 points a game on offense and this was about 1.5 points less than could be expected. Conversely, Houston scored over 44 points per game, on average, and this was about 4 points more than could be expected. The bigger difference, though, is on defense where Army held their opponents to about 10.5 points less than they should have scored, on average. That is pretty amazing. When it comes to teams that have played so far this bowl season only App St and Fresno St have been anywhere close to this and they both won and covered easily.

The total is interesting in that these RPI numbers are projecting 61.5 and the number has blown right through that on its way from 67 to 57. I think there may be value on the over now.

Yards Per Play

Another metric used to generate a potential spread is net yards per play. It usually trends towards the dog and it does so here in a big, big way.

Based on yards per play, we should actually see Houston favored by 6.5. This is easily the biggest difference from the market we have seen this bowl season.

Offense vs Defense

This comparison is where Army really shines. Army has the best combination of 3rd down numbers in the country. And they are not too shabby in the red zone either!

Army converts better on 3rd down, third best in the nation actually; they prevent 3rd down conversion at the second best rate in the country; they can keep up when scoring in the red zone and they have the 7th best red zone defense in the country. Their red zone defensive advantage over Houston is extreme.

Fancy Stats

This is where Houston starts to look a little competitive.

Houston gets behind the line at a better clip, they have one of the most explosive offenses in college football and despite their defensive shortcomings the Cougars are way above average in preventing explosive plays.

The Spot

Houston kind of collapsed down the stretch, losing three of their last four. And their defense was certainly exposed during that streak. In their final three losses, Houston gave up 45, 59, and 52. I doubt there is going to be any improvement either, as Houston’s two best defensive players have chosen to sit out this bowl game. Additionally, the ‘explosive’ Houston offense could be in trouble too, as staring qb D’Eriq King is hurt and won’t be playing.

Army is coming into the Armed Forces bowl trying to get their 11th win for the first time in program history. That is something to get motivated about. The Black Knights beat Air Force and Navy to claim the Commander in Chiefs trophy for a second straight year and should be pumped to further their recent success.

Conclusion

It is truly hard to make a call here. Army was 4–3–2 as a favorite this year but, 8 of their 10 wins came by at least 7 points. Houston is decimated on both sides of the ball and certainly can’t be as excited as Army to be here in Fort Worth. Army has already played in the Armed Forces bowl twice, including last year, and they won both games. In fact, Army has won five of their seven bowl appearances overall and four of those seven went over a total of 57.
It seems square, again but, I don’t see how Houston stops Army and I think both teams can score.

Army -6.5, -110, x0.5
Army/Navy o57, -110 x0.5

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